BCC: Three Business Insights From 2025 That Matter for the Year Ahead

David Bharier, Head of Research, British Chambers of Commerce

The significant evidence collected throughout 2025 by the BCC Insights Unit shows a UK business community navigating relentless policy shocks, global trade headwinds, and rapid technology adoption. And from our extensive programme of research, three themes stand out as defining how firms experienced the year – and what this might mean for 2026.

1. UK Budgets have hit business confidence
Business confidence has been materially affected by recent UK Budgets. The BCC’s Quarterly Economic Survey for Q4 2024, the first full dataset following the October 2024 Budget, showed a significant decline in sentiment, with all major indicators taking a hit.
Only 49% of firms expected turnover to increase, down from 58% earlier in 2024[1]. Concern about tax reached a record high, cited by 63% of firms, driven largely by the rise in employer National Insurance Contributions. Many businesses reported scaling back investment and planning to raise prices as cost pressures mounted. As one small construction firm in Scotland noted, the NICs increase was a “hammer blow to business confidence, [causing a] reversal in plans to increase investment and halting further job creation” – a story echoed across the country.
This trend continued up to the next Budget, where persistent uncertainty and speculation became the main concern. Confidence has been highly sensitive to fiscal policy, with firms reacting sharply to changes in taxation and anticipated costs. This has exacerbated the UK’s low-growth environment, with the BCC forecasting only 1.2% GDP growth for 2026[2].

2. Tariffs and trade wars have weighted on exporters
The pattern of uncertainty also played out on the global level, triggered by the Trump Administration’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement in April. In a snap poll conducted within 48 hours of the announcement 62% of firms with exposure to the USA expected a negative impact, though many favoured a negotiated settlement – a view ultimately taken forward by the UK government into the subsequent trade negotiations[3].

But it wasn’t just the one-off announcement that triggered panic; it has also been the wider shift in trade policy towards protectionism and aggression. The removal of the US de minimis tax exemption for small imports, the subsequent EU removal, and the ongoing burdens of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement with the EU, which 54% of exporters continue to face challenges with, have all particularly affected smaller SME exporters.

These conditions have been particularly harsh for SME exporters, with confidence falling faster than in other sectors and the vast majority reporting no quarter-to-quarter increase in overseas sales. Upcoming trade opportunities, including new deals with India and Korea and the UK-EU reset talks, could provide some much-needed tailwinds.

3. AI adoption is rising steadily among SMEs
Amid policy and trade challenges, technology adoption remains one of the most enduring structural trends of 2025, and may be one of the few levers to address the UK’s growth conundrum. BCC research in partnership with Intuit this year showed that 35% of UK SMEs are actively using artificial intelligence technology, up from 25% in 2024, with a further 24% planning to adopt AI in the near future[4]. The proportion of firms with no plans to use AI has fallen sharply year-on-year, signalling growing engagement with digital tools across sectors.

This shift reflects broader strategic adaptation by firms seeking productivity gains, improved decision-making and competitiveness. While the pace and depth of adoption vary by sector – with professional service firms leading the way – the momentum is clear and could cause further major shifts in both business models and the wider employment picture next year.

What this means for 2026
Together, these insights show an economy where sentiment and strategic behaviour are shaped not just by traditional demand conditions, but by policy signals, global trade frictions and structural technology adoption – many questions remain: How are firms adapting to constant trade turbulence? Will they take advantage of new opportunities? What would give them certainty to invest? Will a surge in AI trigger mass unemployment?  

Understanding these dynamics will be vital for policymakers and business leaders alike. The BCC Insights Unit will be at the forefront of tackling these questions, working closely with its extensive network of businesses and world-leading experts.

Further reading
BCC’s TCA report https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2025/12/eu-trade-getting-harder/

[1] https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2025/01/budget-tax-hike-bursts-business-confidence/
[2] https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2025/12/bcc-economic-forecast-budget-unlikely-to-be-growth-game-changer/
[3] https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2025/04/extent-of-us-tariff-impact-revealed/
[4] https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2025/09/turning-point-as-more-smes-unlock-ai/

Source: British Chambers of Commerce

Start 2026 by sharing last year’s CSR campaigns to get the recognition they deserve! Enter the prestigious 2025 ANNUAL RESPONSIBLE BUSINESS AWARDS, the first and foremost national awards for companies that give back.

The 23^rd edition of the prominent corporate social responsibility, sustainability and diversity awards will champion corporate campaigns in 2025 that benefitted people, the community and the environment. Our aim is to honour corporate excellence and social impact and promote best practice.

Don’t miss your chance: be recognized for sustainability, lead by example and inspire others by showcasing your social good campaigns in six categories: 

• Investor in Community
• Investor in Knowledge
• Investor in Environment
• Investor in Human Capital and Working Conditions
• Diversity at Work   
• Cause-Related Marketing 

The competition is open to all businesses regardless of industry and size. Do check out the terms and other details of the online application process on the BBLF web page. Please note the following: 

• One campaign can only be entered in one category.
• All participating SMEs, regardless of category, are eligible for the Best Social Policy by SME special award. 
• An application fee is valid for each entry, and members enjoy a special discount:
  • Euro 50 for member companies
  • Euro 100 for non members.

Last but not least, now is the right time to position your company as a partner of the Awards(sponsorship packages)!

For details do reach out to the BBLF team at office@bblf.bg and 02 986 5202. 

Entry deadline is 15 January.

At the BBCC, we’ve always believed that our most successful events are those built on genuine partnership. As we finalize our upcoming events calendar for 2026, we want to ensure our marketing opportunities offer more than just visibility—we want them to offer a seat at the heart of our community.

Instead of a one-way webinar presenting a list of packages, we would like to invite our memebrs to a series of 1-1 strategy sessions. The goal is to move away from “off-the-shelf” sponsorship and toward collaborative marketing. I want to hear what your business needs from the BBCC this year and how we can integrate your brand into our community’s story.

How to book your session: To make things as easy as possible and avoid the back-and-forth of emails, you can book a 30-minute slot directly on Calendly here. Alternatively, feel free to send a message to sandrina.georgieva@bbcc.bg and we will reach out to schedule a time that works for you.

Book your Winter escape by the end of January and enjoy 15% off stays until March 31st, 2026.

Indulge in a well-deserved retreat, whether you’re seeking relaxation, want to explore Sofia in the winter, or simply a change of scenery.

Book now – https://bit.ly/3LvDnUW

Our community is growing, and our event calendar is filling up fast. We’re on the hunt for fresh, alternative, and unique venues to host our upcoming gatherings.

Do you have a hall, a studio, or a unique space that you’d love to share with us? Whether it’s a hidden gem or a classic community space, we want to hear about it!

How to help: If you have a lead, please send us a message with:

• The Location: Where is it based?
• The Size: Roughly how many people can it hold? (Seated/Standing)
• The Vibe: What makes it special?

Help us keep our events exciting by bringing them to your neighborhood!

At the 32^nd Banker of the Year Annual Awards Ceremony, organized by BANKER Daily, Christof De Mil, Chief Executive Officer of UBB and Country Manager of KBC Group in Bulgaria, was presented the prestigious Banker of the Year award for preserving the leadership position of UBB as the biggest bank on the market in 2025 in terms of total assets.

This award is in recognition of the outstanding business results of UBB in all business lines during the current year that is almost over, with which the Bank affirms its leadership position as the biggest financial institution in this country.

UBB has won the first place on the Bulgarian banking market in terms of assets through series of successful mergers and acquisitions. In 2025 the Bank affirmed its position through excellent business achievements. Presently the assets of UBB amount to the impressive BGN 42 billion – an amount, representing about one fifth of all banking sector assets in Bulgaria.

„Being the biggest is one thing, however keeping it up – is quite a different story. I thank all 5000 employees of UBB for their dedication and professionalism, as well as those over 2 million customers for the trust they put in us every single day. This recognition is the fruit of all our common efforts and commitment to the sustainable success of the Bank“, said Christof De Mil on the occasion of the award.

It is the first time that UBB has received the Banker of the Year prize in the Total Assets category, which emphasizes the impressive development of the Bank over recent months. Earlier this year UBB was also awarded the Bank of the Year distinction in the Market Share category.

Christof De Mil took over as Chief Executive Officer of UBB at the beginning of this year, after having successfully managed the merger and integration between UBB and the Bulgarian subsidiary of Raiffeisenbank International. It is exactly this strategic success, along with the subsequent business results of UBB that had tilted the scales in his favour and provided him with an opportunity to realize his first significant achievements as the Bank’s head.

The Banker of the Year award symbolizes trust, stability and professional responsibility towards UBB customers, partners and employees and acknowledges the leading role of the bank on the Bulgarian market.

The Faculty of Economics and Business Administration (FEBA) and the Faculty of Physics of the Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski” announce admission to the master’s program in English – “Nuclear Technologies, Management, and Innovations”, created jointly by lecturers in both faculties and by key practitioners in the industry. The application process is between 1 and 31 January 2026 and the first module of lectures will start on 30 March 2026.

The master’s program “Nuclear Technologies, Management, and Innovations” is created under professional field 3.7 “Administration and Management” with a duration of four semesters and is entirely conducted in English. The program’s courses will be taught by faculty members of Sofia University, distinguished practitioners, as well as guest lecturers from foreign and Bulgarian scientific organizations, institutions, and companies.

The programme is implemented on the model of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for the so-called International Nuclear Management Academy (INMA). The programmes included in the INMA initiative are aimed at current and future managers working in the nuclear energy sector as well as for non-energy applications. INMA is part of the nuclear knowledge management activities of the IAEA Department of Nuclear Energy. More about INMA here.

For more information, please visit the programme’s webpage.