At The World Ahead 2023 Gala Dinner at the Grand Hotel Millennium in Sofia, Bulgaria on February 6th 2023 a large audience heard some bold predictions about Europe’s future, inclusion and equality, empowering women and girls, Bulgaria’s stability and growth, technology, business leadership, and healthcare and innovation in 2023.
The Economist’s top 10 ten themes and trends to watch in the year ahead were presented during the event’s opening by Joan Hoey, director of The Democracy Index at The Economist:
1. The war in Ukraine has been the main driver of everything that has been happening in the world economy over the past year and it will continue to be the case in 2023 as well. Only 9% of our super forecasters think that the war will end in 2023, Joan Hoey noted.
2. Recession or stagnation? Mild in America, more painful in Europe.
3. Climate silver lining: The war has accelerated the shift towards renewable energy. The International Energy Agency
has said that this war is a turning point in the history of energy.
4. Peak China? Its economy is slowing and its population is shrinking (and, soon, smaller than India’s)
5. Divided America. Conflict will intensify, both within and between parties as candidates prepare for 2024.
6. Flashpoints to watch. Taiwan is the main one, but conflict could flare up in other places.
7. Shifting alliances. NATO is revitalized, and other alliances are growing in importance too.
8. Revenge tourism. Spending on tourism will almost regain its 2019 level.
9. Metaverse reality check. Does the metaverse have legs? Will Apple change the game (again)?
10.New year, new jargon. Will passkeys replace passwords?
In retrospect, the pandemic marked the end of a period of relative stability in geopolitics and economics. Today’s world is much more unstable, convulsed by unpredictability in geopolitics, the aftershocks of the pandemic, economic upheaval, extreme weather events, rapid social and technological change. Unpredictability is the new normal, Joan Hoey concluded.
“By its unprovoked and unjustified actions against Ukraine, Russia is grossly violating international law and undermining European and global security and stability” said Helena Dalli, European Commissioner for Equality in the opening of her video message. “Civilians are paying the highest price, millions of Ukrainians have been displaced leading to a sharp rise in humanitarian need”, Ms Dalli noted. “Russia’s war of aggression also has a devastating impact on women and girls. As the conflict drags on, we have to make sure that these women and girls get all the support they need”, the Commissioner underlined, among others.
“Bulgaria was the first country to respond to the disaster in Turkey”, said Rumen Radev, president of Bulgaria. “Bulgaria has an open and small economy but also an adaptive and flexible economy with future potential”, he noted. He referred to the interconnection between the Bulgarian and the German economy, the crises that European and global economies are currently facing and the significance of the NextGenerationEU funds. President Radev stated that a big issue for the future is that we are going to have a kind of mixed economy, commenting that state aid has an impact on business competitiveness. “In the long term, the big issue for Bulgaria is demography”, he concluded.
“I don’t want to be a pessimist but the world has become a very insecure place”, prime minister of Bulgaria Galab Donev said, adding that the recent earthquake in Turkey and Syria is an example of unpredictability. He further referred to the skyrocketing of the energy prices and to the previously unseen migrant crisis because of the war in Ukraine. The Bulgarian prime minister also emphasized the demographic situation in the country and the respective policies to be followed.
Europe is in a kind of unique situation because of the strong shocks that are taking place, according to Sir Chris Pissarides, Regius professor of Economics at the London School of Economics and Nobel laureate. As for the changes that are taking place in the workplace, Sir Pissarides noted that jobs need to adapt to the digital technology if they are going to survive. “Both companies and workers need to change the way they approach work”, he noted. The covid-19 has made us aware of the importance of public health, he said, adding that the pandemic also introduced new technologies that enabled remote working, which he believes it will remain. Finally, consumers are becoming aware of both health and climate change. “They are switching their purchasing habits and their shopping methods, moving online”, professor Pissarides said concluding his remarks.
“The covid-19 pandemic might be behind us, but we are still dealing with the effect of the psychological aftermath”, said professor and chairman of the Bulgarian Society of Neurosurgery Nikolay Gabrovski. “Despite all the difficulties, we coped with it but we could do more, he noted, adding that “courage” is the keyword that can help us overcome the damages done to our society by the covid-19 pandemic. “Only those who have courage can think of tomorrow”, he underlined, highlighting in parallel the importance of innovations.
It’s an interesting and challenging period for banking, Petia Dimitrova, chief executive officer and chairperson of the management board of Postbank noted, adding that innovation and digitalization in banking is in full swing and that this trend will continue. Investment in innovation is irreversible and clients will benefit from that, Ms Dimitrova commented. As hard as it may be, we are in for interesting times because we will be seeing technology changing lives, she said. ESG policies are instrumental in mitigating climate change, Ms Dimitrova concluded.
The war has already made the EU poorer, EIB vice-president Lilyana Pavlova said, adding that fiscal support is helping us prevent a recession. Ms Pavlova noted that uncertainty and high energy costs are holding back corporate investment. She emphasized the need to lower investment obstacles and tackle chronic investment gaps. Investment should not fall victim to a potential economic slowdown this year, Ms Pavlova concluded.
The past few years have been challenging for all industries, Juerg Burkhalter, general manager of Coca Cola HBC underlined. He focused on the companies’ need to support the socio-economic development of their communities and achieve a more positive environmental impact. Mr Burkhalter also referred to the “exponential growth” in the prices of energy resources and raw materials needed for production. That highlights the significance of investing in innovative technologies and of reducing the consumption of resources, he added. Mr Burkhalter also referred to examples from his company with regard to sustainability, decarbonization and recycling goals commitment.
Robert Ross-Clunis, general counsel and group head of compliance of Henley & Partners focused on investment migration as a source of foreign direct investment to achieve growth. Μore nations realize the value of investment migration programs in the escalating competition for capital, talent and wealth, he noted. Mr Ross-Klunis listed some of the benefits of such programs and stressed that governments can use them as an innovative financing tool to allocate investors’ funds for national or regional social, infrastructure and development projects.
Today we are placed in the challenging circumstances of using sustainability in the context of post pandemic effects, crises, war, energy shocks, stagnation and uncertainty, noted Tim Kurth, chief executive officer of Aurubis Bulgaria. This heightens our responsibility, he said, adding that our mission is to overcome the circumstances by developing and implementing solutions. “Reaching the sustainability development goals means in fact to achieve the human development goals. We have no right to fail. Failure is not an option.”, Mr Kurth concluded.