BCC: The Latest Quarterly Economic Survey Findings: What’s the Story?  

Place-based growth meets a fragile economy 

Andy Burnham’s recent speech in Manchester set out an ambitious economic vision of “good growth in every postcode”. He outlined a major rebalancing of power away from Whitehall, with a renewed focus on housing, transport, skills, infrastructure and industrial renewal. 

For the UK Chamber of Commerce Network, much of this will feel familiar. Chambers have long argued that economic policy works best when it is shaped close to the businesses and communities it is designed to serve.  

But the latest BCC Quarterly Economic Survey shows the hard economic reality facing the man who will very likely be the next UK Prime Minister. Business conditions weakened further in Q2 2026. Fewer firms reported rising sales, export sentiment weakened, confidence remained fragile, and investment intentions dropped to their lowest level since the pandemic. The survey drew on responses from 4,744 businesses, 92% of them SMEs, between 11 May and 8 June.¹  

These latest insights ask not whether place-based growth is desirable, but whether it can deliver quickly enough in a weak trading environment. 

The importance of investment 

The sharpest warning from the QES is on investment. Only 17% of firms said they planned to increase investment in plant, machinery or equipment, down from 21% in Q1. A quarter (26%) planned to cut back. That’s the lowest level since the Covid pandemic. 

Source: BCC QES. Q: Over the past 3 months, investment plans for plant, machinery, tech, or equipment have (increased, remained constant, decreased). n=4,133. 

This is where ‘Manchesterism’ has both relevance and a major test. Burnham’s model of using public and private investment to support regeneration, transport and housing fits well with the Chamber Network’s call for long-term investment in transport, digital and energy infrastructure.  

But businesses will judge it by delivery. Does it make decisions faster? Does it make accountability clearer? Does it make business support easier to navigate? Or does it create new structures, overlapping responsibilities and more bureaucracy without better outcomes? 

The recent BCC report², co-authored by BCC President and former Chief Economist at the Bank of England Andy Haldane, set out a clear test to measure exactly that: before announcing any major economic measure, policymakers should ask, will this prompt firms to do something they would not otherwise have done?   

Confidence slides away 

The QES also shows that confidence has weakened. Just 44% of firms expected turnover to improve over the next 12 months, down from 49% in Q1, while 23% expected a decline. This is a return to turnover confidence being on a downward trend, following a brief recovery earlier in the year.  

This is the backdrop against which any new Government must operate. Place-based growth can help business confidence because many firms experience the economy locally. The recent speech in Manchester highlighted local skills and procurement as two priorities for any new administration. Confidence may grow if smaller firms have a fairer chance to access major public and private-sector supply chains as well as being able to find people with the right skills, in the right places, at the right time.  

Costs pressures go supersonic 

The survey also shows inflation re-emerging as the leading concern for businesses, cited by 66% of firms. Fuel costs rose sharply as a price pressure, while labour costs remained the most common source of price pressure.  

This is a key constraint on the devolution agenda. Businesses may support stronger local powers, but they will want reassurance that fiscal devolution does not become a route to unnecessary new local taxes or levies. In an environment where firms are already under pressure from wages, tax, utilities, fuel and borrowing costs, the margin for policy error is narrow. 

Trading half the world away 

Burnham’s speech went big on domestic renewal, but less clear on how firms will be helped to sell overseas, navigate global supply chains or access new markets. That will be a worry for Chambers at a time when QES export sales indicators have been declining across the board, dropping into negative territory in Q2.  

A stronger local economy cannot only mean better domestic coordination. It must also mean helping firms connect to global markets. “Growth in every postcode” must also mean connecting every postcode to the world. 

The masterplan 

The right test for any new administration is therefore the BCC’s Growth Delivery Test: will it prompt firms to do something they would not otherwise have done? 

Will more firms invest? Will more recruit and train? Will more enter supply chains? Will more export? Will more scale? 

The QES suggests many firms are stuck in a risk-aversion cycle. Burnham’s agenda could help break that cycle if it turns local leadership into practical delivery. But if it creates more bureaucracy, higher costs or unclear accountability, it will miss the moment. 

The latest QES does not weaken the case for place-based growth, but it does make the delivery challenge sharper. If successful, Burnham’s agenda could help turn business ambition into investment, recruitment and growth. But if it creates more bureaucracy, higher costs or unclear accountability, it risks becoming another policy agenda that diagnoses the problem without changing the decisions businesses make each day. 

Further reading 

QES Q2 2026: https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2026/07/business-investment-plans-hit-post-pandemic-low/  

QES Dashboard: https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/insights-unit/quarterly-economic-survey/   

BCC Insights Unit publications: https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/insights-unit/publications-and-commentary 

The Council of Women in Business in Bulgaria believes that employees with many years of professional experience are carriers of knowledge, expertise and organisational memory, which are of key importance for sustainable development and success. In the conditions of dynamic changes in the labour market, the question of how companies attract, develop and retain not only young talents, but also experienced professionals is becoming increasingly important.

In this regard, the Council of Women in Business in Bulgaria has launched a study dedicated to people with over 20 years of professional experience and their place in the modern work environment.

Get involved in the initiative by sharing the practices and observations of the organisation you represent.

The purpose of the study is to gather the perspectives of both employers and the professionals themselves in order to better understand:

• What are the attitudes towards attracting and retaining experienced people;
• What are the real challenges and opportunities facing them;
• What is the importance of factors such as development, recognition, adaptation to new technologies, intergenerational environment, psychological safety and a sense of value in the organisation?

Employer Questionnaire: https://womeninbusiness.bg/new-site/praktiki-organizacii-slujiteli-20plus-prof-opit/

Share practices and observations relevant to the company you represent. One response from each company should be submitted by a representative with a comprehensive view of the organisation’s people policies. Suitable respondents are: HR Director, HR Business Partner, Talent Acquisition Lead, People and Culture Head, Learning and Development Specialist, CEO, Manager, Senior Management Member or Manager of a Function or Business Unit.

Employee questionnaire: https://womeninbusiness.bg/new-site/online-vaprosnik-profil-na-opitniya-profesionalist/

Deadline for participation: July 26, 2026.

The survey is anonymous, and the information provided will be used solely for the purposes of the survey in aggregate form.

Reacting to the release of the Defence Investment Plan, Kate Shoesmith, Director of Policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, said:  

“The release of this spending plan is long overdue. Businesses have been patiently waiting to get a better understanding of the government’s priorities and how these dovetail with long-term procurement and supply chain resilience policies.  

“National security and economic security must go hand in hand. Boosting defence manufacturing and exports have to be key goals for the next decade and beyond. 

“This includes protecting access to steel. It is imperative the government keeps its quota and tariff plans under review as these could still harm defence firms in downstream sectors including engineering and manufacturing. 

“It’s equally important that funding any uplift in defence spending is not done at the expense of other strategically important initiatives on energy, regional growth and infrastructure investment.  

“But the prize here is significant. In 2023, UK defence exports surged by 29% on the previous year, and 49% of these overseas sales went to the EU. 

“Raising these metrics further would give the UK economy a welcome boost, so the new Defence Exports Facility, underpinned by a £50bn uplift in UK Export Finance, should be applauded. 

“To maximise the economic benefits, we must also increase the number of SMEs that can competitively bid for contracts through simplified procurement rules and better supply chain connectivity. 

“Alongside the investment plan, the UK must also seek to benefit from wider access to defence initiatives involving our allies, including the EU, US, NATO and Australia. 

“While it may now be too late to access the EU’s current Security Action For Europe (SAFE) initiative, the government should make sure it does not miss out on other opportunities with the EU and individual countries.” 

More detail on the Defence Investment Plan can be found here. 

Source: British Chambers of Commerce

Responding to the speech by Labour leadership candidate Andy Burnham, Shevaun Haviland, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, said: 

“Firms need consistency, clarity and stability from policymakers, if business confidence is to be improved.  

“Businesses will judge Andy Burnham’s plans on whether they deliver the boost to investment, productivity and trade desperately needed to unlock growth. As our recent report outlined, government must always ask whether policy passes a ‘growth delivery test’ to encourage firms to invest and grow.  

“It’s crucial that the devolution agenda has local business at its heart and brings benefits to all parts of the UK.  

“Our Chamber network completely understands how national ambition can be translated into local economic growth. We’ve long argued that more decisions affecting local economies, including transport, skills and infrastructure, should be taken closer to the communities they serve.  

“Successful Chamber-led Local Skills Improvement Plans across England show the power of devolution to help address the challenges facing our economy. Creating greater parity between academic and technical qualifications is something business wholeheartedly supports.   

“A pledge to improve the public procurement system is welcome, but it must quickly bring benefits to SME supply chains across the UK.  

“Fiscal devolution must see money spent in the right way, to boost local growth. It must not mean further costs on business. BCC analysis shows government-imposed costs on SMEs have risen by more than 70% in just 10 years. New local business taxes and visitor levies would stifle economic growth.  

“The difficult truth is, whoever leads the UK, the primary challenge remains the same – delivering growth. Business stands ready to work in partnership with any new Prime Minister to focus on that crucial task.”  

Source: British Chambers of Commerce

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) is urging government to transform public procurement and infrastructure delivery to unlock growth. 

At its Global Annual Conference, today, it has launched a new report – A Smarter Way to Deliver Infrastructure: The Great British Supply Chain – setting out how this can be done. 

Among its key recommendations are: 

• Simplifying procurement rules and rebalancing social value criteria to increase SME participation and local economic impact 
• Embedding Local Skills Improvement Plans (LSIPs) into all major infrastructure projects to align skills with delivery needs 
• Committing to a long-term programme of transport, digital and energy infrastructure investment to unlock supply chain capacity 

The plans were announced by Director General Shevaun Haviland during her conference speech. The report analyses how fragmented procurement systems and supply chain pressures are holding back UK economic potential. 

While small and medium sized business make up 99% of UK businesses, they currently receive just 22% of direct public procurement spend. Increasing this share to the government’s 33% target would redirect up to £20bn a year into regional economies, strengthening resilience and boosting growth. 

The report also underlines the wider economic benefit that comes from supporting more local suppliers. Every £1 spent locally generates £1.76 in economic value, compared to just £0.36 when this money is spent outside the area. 

But complex and resource-intensive procurement processes, skills shortages, and poor infrastructure are preventing smaller firms from accessing opportunities and delivering at scale. 

Drawing on extensive experience from its Chamber network, including involvement in major projects such as Hinkley Point, Crossrail and Sizewell, the BCC is proposing a practical plan to build a more inclusive and resilient ‘Great British Supply Chain’. 

Shevaun Haviland, Director General of the BCC, said: 

“Public procurement should be one of the most powerful tools we have to drive growth across the UK. But right now, it is too complex, too fragmented, and too often excludes the very businesses that can deliver innovation and impact. 

“Our analysis shows that unlocking supply chains is one of the fastest ways to boost regional economies, create high-quality jobs and strengthen resilience in the face of global uncertainty. 

“Chambers of Commerce across the UK are demonstrating what works — helping pump billions of pounds into their communities by connecting local businesses to major projects. 

“We are already speaking to government about how we build on this ambition. By simplifying procurement, investing in skills and infrastructure, and opening up opportunities to SMEs, we can build stronger supply chains that work for every region of the UK. 

“The tools exist. Businesses are ready. This is a chance to deliver growth at pace and scale.”

On June 13, the Anglo-American School of Sofia (AAS) campus transformed into a vibrant global village for its annual International Fair, bringing together the school’s diverse community of 55 countries.

A Feast for the Senses

The absolute highlight of the International Fair was connecting over home-made food from around the world. The AAS parent community prepared delicious national dishes that offered a genuine taste of the diverse cultures that make up the school.

Beyond the food, the school grounds were buzzing all afternoon with live performances showcasing the many talents of AAS students. A variety of games and activities kept the youngest guests energized and entertained. 

The afternoon also featured student-led charity initiatives that beautifully highlighted the school’s core value of giving back, all leading up to the raffle – a student-favorite tradition that kept everyone on the edge of their seats until the very last prize.

A Heartfelt Thank You

An event of this scale takes a great amount of heart, time, and teamwork. A massive thank you goes to the incredible volunteers and the Parent Teacher Organization (PTO) for making it all happen.

Thanks to the parents’ generosity, the PTO raised funds that will go straight back into supporting the school’s educational programs and enhancing the student experience.

See more pictures from the event here.

The President of the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) is calling on policymakers to introduce a ‘growth delivery test’ to help businesses turn ambition into action.  

A major new report, co-authored by Andy Haldane, says the UK can break through its decades long economic growth ceiling by focusing on the decisions businesses make every day.  

Based on research from the BCC Insights Unit, the report identifies five practical levers for growth: skills, technology adoption, trade, finance and business scaling.  

In a survey of 875 firms in April, respondents were asked what would directly support growth in their business. The results showed: 

• 67% said better access to skills  
• 60% said increased use of AI  
• 56% said simpler processes and lower costs to trade globally 
• 46% said easier access to finance  
• 35% said simpler process to restructure, list or exit  

The report argues that the UK’s growth problem is not a lack of potential, but a failure to convert that potential into action. It says, “the UK has the ingredients of growth already in place: resilient firms, strong private sector balance sheets, high levels of innovation, deep pools of capital, and a globally respected business brand.” 

However, the report warns that “firms have not lost ambition. They have lost confidence that the economic environment rewards it.”  

It identifies a growing “risk-aversion cycle” among businesses, arguing that too many firms are delaying investment, recruitment and expansion because the risks outweigh the rewards. 

The report concludes “the measure of success is not a strategy published. It is a decision changed.” 

Andy Haldane, President of the British Chambers of Commerce said:  

“The UK does not lack growth potential; it lacks the ability to turn that potential into delivery. 

“Our businesses are innovative, ambitious and resilient. But after years of rising costs, skills shortages, regulatory pressure and economic uncertainty, too many now believe the risks of growth outweigh the rewards. 

“Growth depends on businesses choosing to invest, hire, train, adopt new technologies, enter new markets and scale. If too few firms make those choices, economic growth will remain stubbornly weak. 

“That is why this report proposes a simple Growth Delivery Test. Before announcing any major economic measure, policymakers should ask, will this prompt firms to do something they would not otherwise have done? 

“The biggest opportunity is the UK’s ‘movable middle’, the thousands of established firms in every nation and region that already have customers, products and ambition. But they need the confidence, capability and conditions to take the next step. 

“The UK already has the ingredients for growth. The task now is to turn ambition into action.  

Success should be measured not by a strategy published, but by a decision changed.” 

David Bharier, Deputy Director at the British Chambers of Commerce and co-author of the report said: 

“BCC data consistently shows weakening business sentiment and firms experiencing policy as downside risk rather than a route to growth.  

“But beneath that headline lies enormous untapped potential. Our survey of 875 firms shows clear appetite for action – on skills, AI, trade, finance and dynamism.  

“AI adoption alone has more than doubled among SMEs in just two years. What is missing is not ambition but a consistent, systematic way of helping firms act on it across all five levers.” 

Read the full report here

Responding to the latest GDP data published by the Office for National Statistics, Stuart Morrison, Research Manager at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: 

“Growth of 0.7% in the three months to April shows the UK economy maintained good momentum from the start of the year, as businesses again proved resilient.  

“But the fall of 0.1% for the month may be the first sign of the impacts of the Iran conflict. While monthly figures can be volatile, this is a signal that will need to be closely monitored.  

“Businesses have already told us about the direct impacts they are facing from the conflict. Our research shows that energy costs, shipping disruption and raw material prices are all rising.  

“Much depends on the length of the conflict. While our forecast has already downgraded growth expectations to 0.9% for the year, inflation is not expected to hit the same levels as the 2022 crisis. But this could all change if the conflict deepens. 

“Against this backdrop, it is vital that the UK remains a stable and supportive environment for business. Firms are not looking for quick fixes, they want certainty to make long-term decisions on investment, hiring and expansion. 

“To unlock growth, government and business must work in partnership to help firms trade more, invest in new technology and develop a skilled workforce for the future.” 

Read full ONS data here

On 6 June, the largest event dedicated to electric mobility in the country so far took place in Sofia – Eldrive Electromobility Festival 2026, which marked 10 years since the first installed charging station of the company in partnership with The Mall. The event brought together official importers and dealers of more than 20 car brands with over 40 electric vehicles, financing institutions and numerous electromobility partners. A large part of the cars had not been presented to the public before, and some of them arrived especially for the event and could be seen for the first time in Bulgaria.
This year’s edition of the festival was held under the slogan “10 years of electromobility” on the occasion of the anniversary of the first installed Eldrive station, which is at this location and continues to function, and next to it, station number 1000 of the Eldrive network in Bulgaria was recently installed.

According to the organisers, the festival was visited by over 5,000 people. Eldrive shared that on the day of the event, there were over 100 charging sessions at their stations in The Mall, which were free over the weekend, with more than 3,000 kWh of electricity being charged.

The program of Eldrive – Festival of Electromobility 2026 included the opportunity for visitors to view cars from the brands Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Zeekr, Leapmotor, Geely, Renault, Subaru, MG, Hyundai, Toyota, Citroen, DS, Peugeot, Jeep, Opel, Fiat, , Lynk & Co Ford, KIA and Volvo, as well as to test drive a large number of them. Guests of the festival could turn to UBB Interlease, Procredit Bank and Ayvens for financing an electric vehicle. The culmination of the festival was a light show with almost 100 Tesla cars, organised and implemented by Carlife by Dani.

Eldrive is a leading regional operator of public charging infrastructure for electric vehicles in Bulgaria, Romania and Lithuania. The company manages more than 3,500 charging points, with over 1,500 of them in Bulgaria. Eldrive’s main focus is fast and ultra-fast charging, as well as the construction of charging hubs at key locations along major road routes and in cities. The company has ambitious plans to develop its network, which include the construction of 7,400 charging stations by 2028 in the three markets in which the company operates, under a project supported by the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Over 2,000 of them will be in Bulgaria.

The Mall is one of the most visited malls in Sofia and among the largest shopping centres in the city and the country. With its unique design, architecture and over 240 stores, located on an area of ​​over 62,000 sq m. Currently, The Mall is also one of the largest charging hubs in the country, with Eldrive alone offering 16 charging points for electric vehicles with power from 22 to 500 kW.

The latest British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) Economic Forecast suggests growth will remain subdued in 2026 and 2027, as the reverberations of the Middle East conflict continue to be felt. The BCC is predicting weak business investment, higher inflation and falling exports. 

The key points in the forecast are: 

• GDP in 2026 is expected to grow by 0.9% (compared with 1.0% in the previous forecast) then 1.0% in 2027, and 1.3% in 2028. 
• The Middle East conflict is a major economic drag, with business investment now expected to fall by 2.2% this year, before moving back to –0.1% in 2027.  
• Inflation is forecast to peak at 3.8% by the end of 2026 before easing to 2.3% by Q4 2027. 
• Exports are expected to fall by 0.2% this year, largely because of the Iran conflict, before moving back to growth of 1.3% next year.  
• Unemployment is forecast to be 5.2% in 2026, with youth unemployment expected to hit 17.8% next year.  

UK economic outlook 

UK GDP is expected to grow by 0.9% in 2026, which is only marginally slower than the BCC’s previous forecast, despite the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. This is largely reflective of stronger than expected GDP in Q1. The economy is expected to remain at a similar level in 2027, with GDP growth of 1%. It is forecast to pick up to 1.3% in 2028. 

Services continue to be the strongest sector in the economy, with predicted growth of 1.3% this year. Meanwhile, construction is expected to contract by 1.0% in 2026 and the manufacturing sector will see a year of two-halves, with strong Q1-Q2 driven by restocking, but reversing as input costs bite, leading to 0.8% growth overall. 

Business investment to fall significantly this year 

With firms facing elevated domestic costs and global economic uncertainty, business investment is forecast to contract by 2.2% in 2026 and 0.1% in 2027, before recovering to grow by 2.3% in 2028.  

Iran conflict to drive up inflation 

After easing in April, CPI inflation is forecast to rise again in the coming months, peaking at 3.8% in Q4 (compared with 2.7% in the previous forecast). Higher energy prices and shipping costs, linked to the ongoing unrest in the Middle East, are the main drivers. Although much will depend on the course of the conflict, inflation is currently forecast to ease to 2.3% by the end of 2027, and 2.0% by the end of 2028. 

There is uncertainty over how the Bank of England will react, but given already tight monetary policy, weakening growth, rising unemployment, and potentially lower second-round inflationary effects on labour costs, the forecast expects the Bank to hold through the current inflationary spike. However, this could change if the inflation shock deepens.  

Unemployment to rise as labour costs persist 

With vacancies continuing to fall unemployment is forecast to rise to 5.2% in 2026 and then reach 5.5% in 2027. BCC surveys continue to show labour costs as main cost pressure for businesses.  

Youth unemployment remains an area of concern as labour costs and AI erode entry level jobs. It is expected to be 16.9% in 2026, rising to 17.8% in 2027. With firms facing squeezed margins because of input costs and minimum wage increases, growth in average earnings is forecast to ease from 3.7% by Q4 2026 to 3.3% by the end of 2027.  

Exports to be hit by volatile global markets 

With the Middle East conflict making international trade challenging, UK exports are forecast to fall this year by 0.2% (compared with 0.7% growth in the last forecast) before recovering to 1.3% growth in 2027. Much will depend though on the course of the war and the impact of the closures to the Strait of Hormuz on global supply chains.  

The forecast for imports in 2026 has been upgraded to 1.4% (0.6% in Q1), falling to 1.1% in 2027. Consequently, net-trade is expected to remain broadly stable at -2.8% this year and next.  

David Bharier, Deputy Director Economics and Insights at the British Chambers of Commerce: 

“While the UK economy has shown some welcome resilience this year, the expected headline growth figure of 0.9 per cent for 2026 masks underlying concerns. 

“Half of Q1’s GDP gain came from firms building inventories against further supply disruptions – a sign of contingency planning not expansion. Business investment is expected to fall 2.2 per cent this year, reflecting what BCC surveys consistently show: most SMEs are not increasing investment. 

“Much hinges on the course of the Middle East conflict. Inflation is likely to edge towards four per cent this year, but the Bank of England faces a different scenario compared with the 2022 crisis. Weaker growth, rising unemployment, and already restrictive monetary policy mean the Bank could seek to manage this without raising the interest rate and risking further damage. 

“The UK is not in recession, but the economy remains trapped in a cycle where each recovery is interrupted before gaining traction, and firms go back on the defensive. With youth unemployment approaching 18 per cent by mid-2027, the UK risks weakening the skills pipeline it needs for the next economy. 

“The long-term economic potential remains enormous. The UK has world-leading research institutions, rapid AI adoption and the third largest AI investment ecosystem globally. But realising that potential requires reducing the cost burden on firms, rewarding productive risk-taking, and positioning UK businesses to capture the opportunities that will drive future economic gain.” 

Commenting on the forecast, Vicky Pryce, chair of the BCC Economic Advisory Council said: 

“The UK economy continues to operate in a fragile and uncertain global environment, which is hitting the BCC’s growth forecast.  

“Under certain scenarios of energy costs ahead, the IMF has warned of possible recession for the developed world from which the UK will find it difficult to escape. 

“Already with geopolitical instability in the Middle East once again feeding through into higher inflation expectations, especially through energy and shipping costs, weaker international demand is weighing on trade performance.  

“Firms need greater certainty and stability to unlock investment and growth. That means urgent action to ease cost pressures, support trade and help businesses recruit and retain talent in an increasingly challenging environment.” 

Read the full forecast details here